Using Spikes to Minimize Uncertainty

One of the biggest challenges in Time & Materials contracts is balancing the need for precise estimates with project efficiency. The reality? Estimation consumes budget—the more precision we want, the more effort is required to reduce uncertainty. The key is finding the right trade-off between a practical estimation and a highly precise one.

Some level of uncertainty is inevitable—the question is how much effort we invest in reducing it.

The Solution: Timeboxed Spikes

When a high-level estimate is not enough, instead of making blind commitments or overanalyzing, we can dedicate a specific and controlled effort to a spike.

A spike story in Agile allows the team to allocate a fixed amount of time (e.g., 4, 8, or 16 hours) to research, prototype, or investigate before committing to an estimate.

Why? Sometimes, it’s better to pause and analyze than to jump into the water without the proper tools. But at the same time, we must not let the need for precision create decision paralysis.

A spike delivers:

A well-informed estimation range
Identified risks and unknowns
A clearer path forward

How This Help:

Clients gain structured discovery instead of uncertain estimates.
The focus shifts from demanding certainty to managing uncertainty effectively.
It prevents valuable project time from being consumed in endless re-estimations.

Instead of asking “How much will this cost?”, a more effective question is: “How much uncertainty are we comfortable with?”

Using spikes helps teams and clients move forward with clarity and confidence, ensuring just enough investment in estimation without blocking progress.

How do you balance estimation effort and execution in your projects?

The Solution: Timeboxed Spikes

See also